Chapter 47: Heading North or South (Part 1)

“I think so too,” Guo Kang expressed agreement. “He claimed his goal was the Ming Dynasty, but in reality, it was aimed at the Eastern Chagatai’s offensive. The objective wasn’t conquest, but to prevent their attacks and protect his core territory.”

“Why is that?” Pedikas asked. “If that’s the case, why prepare so many troops?”

“The Eastern Chagatai is an old territory of the Western Regions; the warfare there cannot be understood by our own strategic mindset,” Li Xuanying reminded him. “Are you familiar with the wars between the Kara-Khanid Khanate and Khotan?”

“I read about them back in school,” Pedikas nodded.

“Uncle Timur’s main military achievements seem to be in the west, but in his middle years, his greatest enemy was the Eastern Chagatai Khanate,” Li Xuanying explained. “And it wasn’t the entire khanate, but the usurper Hamaluddin—the very one Guo Kang mentioned, whose shaky authority made him seek alliance with Ming.”

“Hamaluddin’s domain roughly covered the old Western Regions, the area directly governed by the Tang Dynasty’s Anxi Protectorate. His authority was widely questioned, with many nobles refusing to obey him. Yet, despite this, Hamaluddin repeatedly launched offensives against Timur, vying for the Syr Darya basin and Fergana, even directly threatening Samarkand.”

“Timur and Hamaluddin fought for nearly thirty years. Timur invaded the Western Regions multiple times, but Hamaluddin always repelled him. Eventually, Timur conquered Kuqa and Khotan, and Hamaluddin disappeared without a trace, finally neutralizing the eastern threat—at least temporarily.”

“That’s why I think this war resembles the Kara-Khanid and Khotan conflict,” he concluded. “Timur was a formidable warrior, but honestly, his side fought like a bigger Kara-Khanid—decades of war, even losing his eldest son, and in the end only eliminating a fragmented power.”

“But what about the other side? Starting from the Central Asian steppe, in just over ten years, he circled through most of Asia: from Delhi to Kazan, then Ankara and Damascus, all conquered by his army.”

“Think about it—if you were him, which direction would you choose for primary expansion?”

“Then why did he still claim he wanted to conquer Ming?” Pedikas pressed further.

“Let’s look at the situation at the time,” Li Xuanying said. “Strategic circumstances decisively shape military actions. I’ve studied this case closely.”

“At that time, the situation in Eastern Chagatai shifted dramatically. It played out somewhat like the story of the orphan of the Borjigin clan.”

“Hamaluddin’s nephew, Ugda, was loyal to the khanate. When Hamaluddin slaughtered royal family members, Ugda hid the khan’s son, Khidr Khoja. After Hamaluddin’s defeat and disappearance, Ugda supported Khidr Khoja’s ascension as khan.”

“This happened around 1390. By 1391, their envoys arrived in Nanjing to pay homage to Zhu Hongwu Hehan, expressing their desire to join the Ming international order.”

“In 1399, Khidr Khoja died and Shams al-Din ascended. He publicly petitioned the emperor, asking permission to launch a western campaign against Timur to reclaim Samarkand, the ancestral land of the Chagatai Khanate. The court even sent envoys to advise caution, urging the young ruler not to act rashly.”

“By this time, after a decade of consolidation, Eastern Chagatai had stabilized and regained strength, while Timur’s core lands were the old Western Chagatai territory. The legitimate khanate would never tolerate losing such grounds, especially contested by a usurper like Hamaluddin.”

“Even if Timur didn’t attack eastward, others would. So, it’s better to strike first and eliminate the enemy while they’re unprepared,” Li Xuanying summarized. “Since Ming was closely linked to Eastern Chagatai, any attack there would inevitably involve Ming. So it was simpler to openly declare the campaign against Ming.”

“Think about it—if he had said directly, people would say ‘Timur is just another holy war fanatic’ or ‘a pretender khan challenging the legitimate Chagatai ruler.’ But if he framed it differently, it became ‘the brave warrior Timur challenging the infidel chief’ or ‘the war god Timur swearing to shatter the invincibility myth of the Peach Blossom Stone.’ At least it sounded more dignified, and it attracted many fervent allies eager to fight. Why not take advantage of that?”

“I see now. That’s enlightening,” Pedikas said, enlightened.

“No problem,” Li Xuanying waved his hand. “Propaganda is also a vital part of war. As commanders, we must understand and learn from it.”

Guo Kang nodded in agreement.

Foster father initially didn’t have high hopes for Timur’s campaign, believing he couldn’t conquer the Eastern Chagatai Khanate.

Even if Timur’s Persian army succeeded in capturing Beshbali, the outcome would be limited. The Eastern Chagatai’s nomadic nature meant their true power lay with the Mongol tribes on the steppe. If they resorted to guerrilla tactics, the consequences would be even worse than the disastrous expedition of Toqtamish.

Though large quantities of supplies and provisions had been prepared, no one could say whether they would last until the enemy gave up—what if, like Hamaluddin, they dragged it out for another thirty years? And if Ming really intervened, the situation would be even more grim.

The Purple Tent Khanate believed Timur should abandon ambitions eastward. Instead, it was better to unite forces again to conquer Egypt and overthrow the Mamluk Sultanate.

Egypt, if managed well, was a prosperous land. For this reason, the Purple Tent had long proposed plans, began assembling a fleet, and even invited the French, who had long coveted the region, hoping the three powers could unite.

But such matters involved core national interests, and Timur could not compromise. So the plan was shelved. With Timur’s death and the ensuing national division, the plan ended in failure, becoming a deep regret for the Purple Tent.

“Now that Timur is gone, and the Northern Yuan seems weak, should we consider other options?” Grand Treasurer Autriphus asked. “What about that northern route? Just hypothetically, could we start from Novgorod or Kazan, bypass those troublesome areas, and reach the Liaoyang Province directly?”